Opinion
Despite Obama and Trump, America just proved it’s still the ‘indispensable power’
Peter Hartcher
Political and international editorAmerica’s credibility never has recovered from Barack Obama’s “red-line” ultimatum to Syria’s dictator. When Bashar al-Assad proceeded to ignore the then US president and used chemical weapons against his own people, Obama did nothing. That threshold moment, Obama’s unenforced “red line” of 2013, was seen as a green light to authoritarians worldwide.
A month later, China began building artificial islands on the contested reefs of the Spratly Islands. When Obama later demanded that China stop using “sharp elbows” to annex maritime territories also claimed by its neighbours, Xi Jinping promised publicly during a White House visit that he would not militarise the islands.
Despite foreign policy bungles under Donald Trump and Barack Obama, America is still proving itself to be an indispensable power.Credit: AP
He went on to do exactly that, on territories also claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia. He judged that Obama would do nothing to stop him. He was right.
Seven months after Obama’s Syria “red line” failed to materialise, Russia first attacked Ukraine by annexing Crimea and then the Donbas. Obama’s so-called “strategic patience” towards North Korea was, in fact, a cover for strategic negligence. Kim Jong-un only grew more belligerent. To be fair to Obama, however, he did successfully strike a deal with Iran to halt its nuclear program.
But Obama was not uniquely or solely responsible for emboldening authoritarian expansionism with his vacillation; Donald Trump was even more understanding of autocrats and their ambitions. Putin expanded his occupation of eastern Ukraine to a full-scale invasion of the entire country in 2022; the war is still raging today.
Xi expanded his successful “grey zone” operation to seize maritime territories from his neighbours and today forcibly confronts the Philippines over control of Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratlys. Trump’s declaration of “love” for Kim Jong-un ultimately excited him so that, by the time Joe Biden took office, Kim was sporting a massive, nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile in his ever-growing arsenal. And Trump pulled the US out of the nuclear deal with Iran, claiming it to have failed, but, in reality, freeing it to resume work on an Iranian nuke.
Illustration: Dionne Gain
The American commentator Robert Kagan’s 2018 book was titled The Jungle Grows Back – meaning that the savage beasts of the international forest were advancing. The law of the jungle was returning. Which may be true, but where are the gamekeepers and gardeners of the international order to keep them in check?
And yet. Look around the world today. Despite a decade of decay in American strategic resolve, despite a decade of advances by dictators against the rules-based order, we see that the US remains as the then US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright described it in 1996 – “the indispensable power”.
Three aspects of today’s international order, last week and this, illuminate America’s uniquely powerful place in the world.
First was the US’s ability to manage a major crisis in the Middle East. One of its achievements was to conjure an international coalition for the air defence of Israel, unheralded and, even now, largely unremarked. We know that the US was indispensable in helping Israel fend off an intense barrage from Iran just over a week ago, together with two other long-standing friends of Israel – Britain and France.
But we now also know that the US last month secretly convened a meeting of the military leaders of Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Qatar to pitch a proposal to create a coordinated air defence network against Iran.
Some of these countries – Jordan and Saudi Arabia – then actively joined in the defence of Israel against the 350 or so Iranian missiles and armed drones that swarmed Israel’s skies in the hope of overwhelming its air defence systems.
Strikingly, one of the countries – Saudi Arabia – doesn’t even recognise Israel diplomatically, yet took part in protecting it militarily. Jordan opened its airspace to the US and its allies, the Saudis assisted with radar tracking and both contributed intelligence to the joint effort.
This represents a potential nascent regional air defence network, joined by mutual hostility to Iran but convened by America. And could only have been convened by America.
The US then successfully negotiated with Israel to curtail Jerusalem’s military hit-back against Iran, helping avert a state-on-state war in the Middle East. Again, no other country could have prevailed effectively on Israel in this way.
Second was the sheer power on display in Washington, culminating in the US House vote on the weekend, and to be confirmed by the Senate shortly.
In a single package of assistance, the House of Representatives approved $US60.8 billion for Ukraine in its war with Russia, $US26.4 billion to support Israel in its fights against Hamas and Iran, and $8.1 billion to counter China in the Indo-Pacific, much of it earmarked for Taiwan.
The funding for Ukraine, in particular, is decisive. Without it, Kyiv’s ability to withstand Moscow would be tested severely and it might have been forced prematurely to the negotiating table. With it, Ukraine is able confidently to continue the fight.
But it’s also true that no other nation would give Israel such a decisive edge over its rivals, and no other would give Taiwan the kit and confidence to sustain its de facto independence against a looming Beijing.
This one package shores up US friends and allies with priceless support amid existential struggles across three continents.
Third is the assertion of power that the US is about to lead in the South China Sea this week. The US is joining its treaty ally the Philippines in the annual Exercise Balikatan manoeuvres, as it has every year for nearly four decades. This year the US and the Philippines will be joined by Japan, Australia and France. And, this year, they will exercise in maritime territories claimed by Beijing, a claim that violates international law. This is a powerful deterrent effort in support of a vulnerable ally at a time of acute danger.
The jungle may be encroaching, but these exercises of US power will show that America can, and sometimes will, defend borders, nations and freedoms against predators. Invincible, no, but indispensable, certainly.
Peter Hartcher is international editor.