By Adam Pengilly and Dan Walsh
Cronulla look to have been handed a rails’ run to the finals with the easiest draw of 2024, in contrast to the journeys both Melbourne and the Rabbitohs will go on next year.
While all form forecasting comes with a hearty grain of salt several months out from the season, the Herald has analysed the schedules of all 17 sides and ranked each with a score based on where they finished in 2023.
All-conquering Penrith are naturally awarded a difficulty factor of 17 for each opposing side, with second-placed Brisbane scored as 16, third-place finishers Melbourne 15, and so on. All the way down to 2023 wooden spooners Wests Tigers, scored as 1.
It is an imperfect science that does not take in home-and-away games, the impact of State of Origin or five-day turnarounds.
It’s by no means a death knell either - last year the Broncos were ranked as having the hardest draw by this masthead, and they were but a Nathan Cleary masterclass away from winning the whole thing, which is just as well for the Storm, Rabbitohs and Bulldogs - who all find themselves at the pointy end of our rankings below.
Storm
If Craig Bellamy’s side were looking for favours from the schedule, they’ve got none. Have to play all three fellow top-four teams from last season, twice, and will put their two-decade-long winning run in round one on the line against the Panthers. They then face the Warriors, Knights and Broncos in a difficult start to the season. The only solace is perhaps playing the Roosters after the final State of Origin match.
Difficulty: 1st
Rabbitohs
Jason Demetriou’s shock top-eight casualties from 2023 will have to do it the hard way next year, playing the Panthers, Broncos and Storm twice and will be on the road to Las Vegas, Brisbane and Allianz Stadium in the opening three weeks due to the unavailability of Accor Stadium. No team plays more games against last year’s top four or top eight, and they will finish with the traditional last-round blockbuster against the Roosters.
Difficulty: 2nd
Bulldogs
The only team not lumped with a five-day turnaround and only have to play the Panthers, Broncos and Storm once throughout the year. Stephen Crichton’s reunion with his Penrith pals will come in round 10 at BlueBet Stadium. Cameron Ciraldo’s side has a tough run-in to the finals with a heavy travel schedule going to Townsville and Brisbane in consecutive weeks and then Bundaberg (home game) and New Zealand back-to-back. Also have to play five teams coming off the bye.
Difficulty: 3rd
Titans
Des Hasler won’t get a better chance to have his new club firing with a favourable start against the Dragons, Bulldogs, Dolphins and Cowboys in the opening stanza, with a bye sprinkled in as well.
They won’t play a top-eight team from last year until round eight, a week before Hasler welcomes his old club Manly to the holiday strip. Have been given the chance to play the Warriors on Anzac Day in New Zealand and will also play Brisbane twice, finishing with the Panthers in the final round.
Difficulty: 4th
Eels
Remember when the Eels had to play three teams in a row at the start of last season fresh off a bye? They never really recovered. Again, no team will have more matches (five) against teams coming off the bye, but Brad Arthur will know they only play two top-eight sides before round 10, making a fast start imperative. The Broncos, Storm and Rabbitohs in consecutive weeks before Origin I could be crucial.
Difficulty: 5th
Sea Eagles
The only team to have no five-day turnarounds and not play a single opposition side off the bye, but have a treacherous start to the year with the Rabbitohs, Roosters, Eels, Panthers and Warriors inside the first six rounds.
Have snuck in another game against the Panthers after Origin I and will have to wait for a reunion with Luke Brooks until round 25.
Difficulty: 6th
Dolphins
Not the most favourable draw for the NRL’s newest franchise as the only team to play all three matches without their Origin stars. On the plus side, they won’t have to leave Queensland until round seven when they head to Darwin, a week before Herbie Farnworth and Tom Flegler play the much-anticipated clash against their old side Brisbane at Suncorp.
Difficulty: 7th
Tigers
Benji Marshall will bank two points before officially starting his head coaching career courtesy of a round one bye, before a positive schedule against the Raiders, Sharks, Sea Eagles, Dolphins and Dragons. Only have to play all top four teams once. The negative? A difficult final month if they’re still in finals contention with the Knights, Rabbitohs, Sea Eagles and Eels to finish.
Difficulty: 8th
Roosters
Not the easiest start for Trent Robinson’s team with five matches against last year’s top four before round 10, including the Las Vegas blockbuster against the Broncos.
The famed Roosters-Rabbitohs rivalry will round out the 2024 season once again.Credit: Getty
Will finish against the Rabbitohs at Accor Stadium again and if they are in the top eight at the end of the Origin period, they’ll fancy their chances of staying there.
Difficulty: 9th
Knights
The fairytale story of the second half of the season will be given the honour of playing the first match of the new season in Australia, against the Raiders in Newcastle, as part of an extra six matches on free-to-air television. But no side has to play more games (seven) against last year’s top four.
Difficulty: 10th
Cowboys
If they’re to return to the finals, they’ll have to start better than last season and only have to play four top-eight teams in the opening 12 weeks before Origin I. Luckily don’t have to travel to New Zealand and Melbourne, easing the physical toll in the second half of the season.
Difficulty: 11th
Reece Walsh will get his first crack at Penrith in a grand final rematch in round three.Credit: Getty
Broncos
The grand finalists will be given every chance to atone for their collapse on the big day, with seven of their first 12 games at Suncorp Stadium and three matches to finish the regular season in Brisbane. Kevin Walters will also get plenty of chances to rest his stars in the back end of the year with the first of three byes in round 13. The grand final rematch will come in round three.
Difficulty: 12th
Panthers
How to make a quest for four straight titles difficult? Start on the road against Melbourne, who never lose round one. The byes before the final two Origin matches will help Ivan Cleary, but they also have more five-day turnarounds (three) than anyone else in the league. The Storm, Eels, Broncos and Roosters is a tasty opening month, the last of which will be Spencer Leniu’s first game against his old side.
Difficulty: 13th
Raiders
Ricky Stuart will count his blessings in having to play only the Warriors out of last year’s top four twice and just one five-day recovery throughout the season. Double doses of the Tigers and Bulldogs will help, too, while they’ll have to wait until round 21 before Jack Wighton returns to Canberra.
Difficulty: 14th
Dragons
Reasonably happy with their lot after copping a series of trips back and forth to Queensland last season. Shane Flanagan couldn’t have asked for a softer landing at the Red V with just one top-eight side faced in the first six weeks. The premiership-winning Sharks coach returns to Cronulla in round nine and also enjoys games against Penrith and Brisbane when they’ll be depleted of their Origin stars.
Difficulty: 15th
Warriors
Only play four games against their fellow top-four finishers from 2023 though the NRL’s favourite feel-good story will be tested early - their first month features Cronulla, Melbourne, Canberra and Newcastle. Just the one five-day turnaround is significant for the NRL’s most well-travelled team, as is a round 27 bye before the finals.
Difficulty: 16th
Sharks
Cronulla play less games (nine) against 2023 finalists than any other side and face traditional stragglers Canterbury and Wests Tigers in rounds two and three. A mid-year run featuring Melbourne in Melbourne, the Roosters at Magic Round, Penrith, Parramatta and Brisbane looms as their toughest stretch - though the Broncos best will be backing up from Origin I.
Difficulty: 17th
Sports news, results and expert commentary. Sign up for our Sport newsletter.