By Nick Wright
Australian swimmers will need to hit historic heights if they are to make an impression come the Paris Olympics.
That is the belief of leading sport data analysts and researchers, who have revealed even the time that earned Emma McKeon gold medal glory in Tokyo had no certainty of replicating those feats.
Emma McKeon claimed a gold medal in the Tokyo Olympics’ 100m freestyle final.Credit: Getty
Queensland University of Technology associate professor Paul Wu, who has dedicated recent years to working with sports scientists, coaches and athletes to analyse patterns in sports performance, joined forces with the Australian Institute of Sport to interpret past results and estimate future performance.
By assessing return from injury trajectory, the history of past performances and the progression of training methods and demands over time, Wu and his team have helped set Australian swimmers across all disciplines a benchmark to aim for and provided training and competition strategy insights to attain those goals.
These findings have vindicated the assertion of Brisbane-based freestyler Meg Harris that to simply make the Paris team in her fields she will need to cast aside one flaw in her career, and break the elusive 52-second mark in the 100 metres event.
“For so long I’ve struggled to put my training into racing,” Harris said.
“It’s going to have to be pretty fast to get the individual spot.”
Harris swam alongside McKeon and sisters Cate and Bronte Campbell in the gold-medal winning 4x100 metres freestyle relay team at the Tokyo Games.
She watched on as McKeon stood atop of the podium in the 100 metres freestyle as an individual, finishing in 51.97 seconds.
But according to Wu’s findings, that same time has just a 75 per cent chance of being victorious again.
The 22-year-old Harris edged out McKeon at last week’s Australian Swimming Championships on the Gold Coast, finishing second to Mollie O’Callaghan with a personal best of 52.59 seconds.
Meg Harris will push for a spot as an individual prospect on the Australian swim team come the Paris Olympics.Credit: Getty
However, Harris – who also shared first with Shayna Jack in the 50 metres at the Championships – was adamant recent results would have no barring on what would be produced at June’s Olympic trials.
“The three girls who are ahead of me at the moment based on the past couple of seasons are Emma – who has done a 51 – Mollie, who has done 52, and Shayna did 52.2. Even Cate and Bronte have done low 52s and 51s,” Harris said.
“It’s exciting being able to get up and race the girls, but in saying that everyone is at different positions, so it’s hard to say.
“If you’re faster than someone last week it isn’t necessarily going to mean you’re in a better position. The Olympic trials are when we compare ourselves.
“I guess that’s always the goal, standing on the podium getting gold, but I’m happy with where I am at the moment. If I keep getting personal bests and ticking away I’m heading in the right direction, not just of this year but my future career.”
Despite a list of accolades that includes an Olympic gold medal and a world record with the nation’s relay side, culminating in an Order of Australia medal, Harris has been able to fly under the radar.
But given the transformation she has undergone since relocating from South Australia to Brisbane late last year to work under coach Damian Jones, she may not be able to stay that way for much longer.
Harris’ new club, Rackley Swimming – home of fellow Olympians Sam Short and Jenna Strauch – has sought to rally around the trio en route to Paris as they chase the rapid times needed to qualify.
To do so, the Rackley Race to France has been created, where nearly 32,000 students and squad members across its Southeast Queensland venues have banded together to swim the distance from the region to France [approximately 37,500 kilometres].
Harris is confident her change of environment, relocating to Queensland late last year, has given her the tools and support to attain her lofty expectations.
“The change of environment has made me excited again to get into racing. I’m putting everything into what I’m doing this year,” Harris said.
“I’ve been a part of the relay since Tokyo, but I also missed being on board for the final team in the Commonwealth Games. It’s been hit-and-miss.
“There is expectation to be part of the team considering the times I put up last week. But for an individual spot, I guess I’m flying under the radar a little bit.
“I haven’t had the individual swim in the 100 metres yet, and I guess that’s the goal in the end.”