Iran has failed to land a punch. What happens next is in Netanyahu’s hands
Now that Israel and Iran have attacked each other’s territory directly for the first time, the world braces for the possibility of a war between the two heavily armed nation states.
If full-scale war eventuates, it would have deep consequences well beyond the Middle East, rippling all the way to the Indo-Pacific.
The night skies above Tel Aviv are lit up as Israel’s defence systems intercept drones and missiles from Iran. Credit: Getty
To now, the Jewish state and the Islamic Republic, while sworn enemies, have conducted hostilities indirectly. They are some 1700 kilometres apart, separated by Jordan, Syria and Iraq.
But, on April 1, a missile struck an Iranian consulate in Syria, assassinating a top Iranian general. Israel is the suspected aggressor but has not admitted so.
The Iranian consulate, technically, is considered Iranian territory; the ayatollahs vowed revenge.
They aimed more than 300 missiles and armed drones at Israel on the weekend. They failed to land a punch. According to Jerusalem, 99 per cent of the hostile weaponry was shot out of the sky by the combined interception efforts of Israel, the US, UK, France and Jordan.
It’s a relief for a frightened Israeli public, and an embarrassment for Iran. Joe Biden reportedly called it a “win” for Israel. Yet Iran says it intends no further direct hostilities unless Israel retaliates.
The ayatollahs are not ready for full-scale war against the combined might of Israel, the US and possibly other allies, too. The Iranian regime has always preferred to outsource risk by arming proxy forces on foreign soil, like Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen.
Now the immediate question of escalation is in the hands of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanhayu. He has created the expectation that Israel would retaliate: “I have set a clear principle: Those who harm us, we harm them,” he said in a broadcast before the Iranian attack.
And Jerusalem reportedly has advised Washington and other capitals that it intends to strike Iran.
Joe Biden wants Netanyahu to stay his hand, even as he continues to pledge “ironclad” support for Jerusalem. The US president has told the Israeli leader that the US will not participate in any Israeli hit-back, according to CNN. Biden has promised a co-ordinated G7 diplomatic campaign against Iran.
The US president’s motives are plain. The US does not want to be drawn into a Middle East war. On the contrary, until Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, the US was planning a slow-motion retreat from its deep engagement in the region.
Washington is struggling against the territorial ambitions of Vladimir Putin in Europe and Xi Jinping in the Indo-Pacific. US policy identifies China as “our most consequential strategic competitor for the coming decades,” in the words of American Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin.
US attention and resources inevitably would be diverted to the Middle East if Israel were fighting a full-scale war against Iran. US enemies everywhere else would rejoice.
But, to date, Netanhayu has ignored most of Biden’s demands in his conduct of the war in Gaza. It could well suit the Israeli leader to ignore him again. Many Israelis think a full confrontation with Iran is inevitable, eventually; it falls to Netanyahu to decide whether this is the moment.
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