Opinion
Pallas says Labor’s promises have been delayed. Many would say they’ve been broken
Annika Smethurst
State Political EditorOn election night in 2022, then-premier Daniel Andrews left little room for doubt: “We will deliver each and every element of our positive plan to benefit each and every Victorian, no matter how you voted,” he told cheering supporters.
Two budgets and 18 months later, Labor’s election manifesto looks as if it’s been jabbing itself with the weight-loss drug, Ozempic.
Premier Daniel Andrews celebrates Labor’s win on election night in 2022.Credit: Getty Images
First the state government reneged on a promise to host the 2026 Commonwealth Games. Then Tuesday’s budget revealed the long-awaited rail line to Melbourne Airport, promised by 2029, has been delayed by “at least four years”.
The Allan government also walked away from a pledge to build a new Royal Melbourne Hospital and Royal Women’s Hospital alongside the new Metro Tunnel’s Arden Station.
And at least one third of the schools Labor promised to upgrade just one month before polling day are yet to receive any funding, giving MPs in those electorates zero ribbons to cut ahead of the next election.
The rollout of free, walk-in mental health clinics that the government promised would “save lives” will be delayed. And parents in Melbourne and regional cities banking (literally) on a doubling of the number of government-subsidised preschool hours will now miss out with the reform pushed back years.
Treasurer Tim Pallas has delivered a budget that amends many of their promises.Credit: Joe Armao
As for Andrews’ pledge to serve the full four years as premier, it didn’t even last 12 months.
From time to time, voters will forgive politicians for breaking election commitments, but it usually requires a collective agreement that circumstances have dramatically changed.
The invasion of Ukraine, a global pandemic or economic headwinds – those are the sort of things that might see voters grant a government some leeway.
What makes this situation more difficult for the Allan government is that all these election pledges were made 18 months ago, when the Reserve Bank had already ticked off on seven of Australia’s 13 interest rate rises,
Inflation was raging and Russia was nine months into its military invasion of the Ukraine.
Ahead of the election, Victoria’s net debt (in June 2022) was already $99.98 billion – larger than the combined total of NSW, Queensland and Tasmania in both nominal terms and as a share of gross state product.
So what’s changed?
The excuses range from cost blowouts and workforce pressures, to electromagnetic interference and a simple change of heart.
It’s clear that the treasurer and premier will continue to argue that these backflips are not examples of politicians breaking election commitments, but a government “recalibrating with a clear path forward, backed by disciplined decisions” as the treasurer put it.
Will voters see it the same way? This comes, partly, to the reasons voters trusted in Labor for a third term.
If they simply respected the government for its leadership during the pandemic or bold city-shaping vision for the state – and were less worried about the details – then maybe the government’s “recalibration” won’t hurt it at the 2026 election.
But if voters believed Labor would deliver on its life-saving mental health hubs, “build the biggest hospital project in Australia’s history” and provide a preschool package which both “invested in women” and gave “kids the very best start” in life – as the government told us – then the government could be in strife.
In other words, when Labor, for example, announced Geelong’s Belmont High School would benefit from an $11 million upgrade, did parents have the right to think it would be finished in time for their children to enjoy?
That calculation is one voters will have to make. But it makes Pallas’ post budget comments at a business lunch on Wednesday all the more curious.
Pallas told the crowd that politicians should be comfortable saying “this is what I am going to do, and if I don’t do it, hold me to account”.
His comments were not lost on spooked Labor MPs who fear cranky voters might just take him up on that offer in 2026.
To prevent this, Pallas and Allan will need to frame their broken promises as honourable acts that will mostly go ahead at some point, even if it’s in an entirely different location, such as the Arden hospital now destined for Parkville.
Voters didn’t judge John Howard on his “non-core” promises and Albanese managed to survive tinkering with his tax-cut commitment in the face of changing financial circumstances. Politics can even involve lies that are innocent, such as when ambitious politicians are asked if they have leadership aspirations. What choice do they really have in answering that question but to affirm support for their current leader?
So, will the public care about where the truth lies in this case?
That will depend on whether Labor can pitch their delays as necessary or whether the opposition can convince the public that they were led down the garden path.
If we blindly dismiss broken promises, we risk giving politicians from all sides permission to tell porkies to be re-elected. More immediately, the risk for Labor is that these backflips will be enough to lose the trust of voters.
Annika Smethurst is state political editor.
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